Ben Ephson`s analysis of ruling party

NDC doesn`t need Rawlings to survive
… Says party has grown beyond the `Rawlings-factor`
Posted: The Chronicle | Tuesday, November 24, 2009

By Charles Takyi-Boadu

Political analyst, Pollster and Editor-In-Chief of The Daily Dispatch newspaper, Ben Ephson, whose views matter a lot in modern-day Ghanaian politics, says the National Democratic Congress (NDC), as a party, does not need former President Jerry John Rawlings to survive any given elections.

This, according to him, was due to the fact that with time and over the years, the party has grown from an individual-centred one, into a whole political institution, and for that matter, no individual could lay claim to its fortunes.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with The Chronicle yesterday, Uncle Ben, as he is affectionately called, said Rawlings' exit from the NDC would not cause so much harm to the party, since the only effect it would cause, would be that “those who go to vote because of Rawlings, will not go and vote.”

On what would become of the NDC if the former President decides to leave the party as he has threatened, Mr. Ephson, said that would largely depend on whether or not he will go his solo way to form another party, or merely stay outside the confines of the NDC, a party he is credited to have formed, “it can affect the party in terms of apathy by people not going out to vote.”

Even then, he noted, “the party will still be strong,” stressing that be as it may, Rawlings' influence and the clout he has in the party does not have the tendency of having too much effect on the NDC.”

That notwithstanding, Mr. Ephson said, “given 3 years, the NDC will be stronger than a Rawlings party. He can't use years to form a party that can be stronger than the NDC.”

Because, “when we did in 2000-2004, the Rawlings support maybe 10%-15%, so if he says he's leaving to form his own party, then he cannot be stronger than the NDC, maybe with time but now…”

In one of his recent interviews with this reporter, Mr. Ephson attributed Mr. Rawlings' continuous attack on the character of President John Evans Atta Mills, as being out of frustration.

This was because Mr. Rawlings was finding it extremely difficult to come to terms with the fact that the incumbent President was exhibiting a level of independence.

Mr. Ephson, who is well noted for his electoral predictions, indicated that though perceptions may not necessarily be true, they may be very powerful considerations in politics, stressing, “so it is now becoming clear that Rawlings is getting frustrated at Mills' fair amount of independence.”

He therefore noted that the perception that Mills was still reeling under the shadows of Rawlings, might have some level of political current.

Whilst he concedes that Rawlings is very popular, Mr. Ephson noted that his popularity was not enough to win power for the NDC.

According to him, the NDC won 2008 election based on the character and personality of then candidate Mills, and not through the popularity or personality of Rawlings.

At any given time, he emphasised, both the NDC and NPP need floating voters to win power.

“Clearly Rawlings is not used to his ideals not being adhered to, so I think there is more honest frustration for not having his advise adhered to.”

That notwithstanding, he believes the NDC is better placed to come out of the challenges it is undergoing, with the belief that the situation would not get out of hand.

There is seemingly brewing tension in the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) over the continuous attack on the personality of President John Evans Atta Mills by Rawlings. Credible, but confidential sources, close to both the seat of government, the Osu Castle and the party's Kokomlemle headquarters, told The Chronicle that the NDC is still grabbling with the rippling effects of Rawlings' recent outburst, which virtually sought to question the authority of the sitting President.

Rawlings is seen by some party members, and other members of the public, as trying strenuously to usurp the powers of President Mills to make it seem as though he is reeling under his shadow.

They see Rawlings' continuous attack on the President, as part of a deliberate ploy and 'hidden agenda' he is hatching, to not only create enmity, but also undermine President Mills the President, for not toeing his line.

According to our sources, this was gradually affecting the party, by gradually creating factions and power blocs in the party, which in the end is causing disaffection for the President among the populace.